Fewer firms plan price rises even as oil costs bite, ANZ survey shows

Fewer New Zealand firms plan to raise their prices. The net share, meaning the share expecting to raise prices minus those expecting to cut them, fell 3 points to 48% in September, according to InvestingLive's summary of ANZ's September Business Outlook, which ANZ's August report scheduled for release today. More firms expect their own costs to rise, though: a net 82%, up 1 point, with costs expected to climb about 2.6% over the next three months, InvestingLive reported.

One-year inflation expectations held at 3.25%. ANZ's August report put them at 3.26%.

Stats NZ's most recent official figures, released on 21 July, show the consumers price index rose 4.1% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter, with higher petrol prices accounting for almost a quarter of that increase. CPI NZ's latest report shows inflation running at 3.13% on the back of softening consumer sentiment which dipped back into negative territory for the month ended September 2026.

Headline confidence eased to +52 from +53.7 in ANZ's August report. Firms' expectations for their own business activity held at +48. Reported past activity fell 5 points to +11.

The averages hide a split in timing. Most responses came in around 1 September. About a quarter arrived after ANZ sent a reminder on 22 September. Oil moved sharply in between. ANZ said the Dubai spot price rose from around US$100 a barrel at the start of the month to a peak near US$128. It was about US$111 when the reminder went out and around US$108 at the time of writing.

Late responders were gloomier. Their own-activity outlook was +36, against +52 in early responses, and their reported past activity turned negative. Every activity indicator except investment fell. ANZ said the survey points to a renewed hit to confidence from higher oil prices. But it said late-month activity readings were nowhere near the lows of late March and April, and described the recovery as bumpy.

The late responses barely moved the price gauges, and some eased. ANZ said that was encouraging for the Reserve Bank but stressed it is very early. Its August report had warned that oil prices would "no doubt continue to have a large impact" on those indicators.

The Reserve Bank's next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision is on 28 October. The survey sends it mixed signals.

The worry is wages. Firms' 12-month wage expectations edged up to around 2.8% from 2.6%. ANZ said wage intentions point to a mild upside risk to the Reserve Bank's forecasts. It also said the share of firms citing skilled-labour shortages suggests spare capacity is being used up faster than the bank assumed in its Monetary Policy Statement earlier this month.

That breaks a pattern ANZ pointed out only a month ago. Its August report said the net share of firms expecting to give pay rises has moved consistently in the opposite direction to oil prices: "when fuel costs rise, firms think they can't afford to give wage increases, and vice versa." In September, oil and wage expectations both rose.

Official figures show a looser labour market. Stats NZ's June-quarter unemployment rate was 5.6%, the highest since September 2015, Newswire reported. Seasonally adjusted filled jobs rose just 0.2%, or 5,391, to 2.36 million in August, according to the Stats NZ release published on Scoop. Compared with August 2025, actual filled jobs were up 20,800, or 0.9%.

The sector results were uneven. Manufacturing was the strongest, with confidence at +79 and employment intentions at +39. Retail was at the other end. Its employment intentions were -11, meaning more shops expect to cut staff than hire. Its investment intentions were a bare +2.

Construction pricing intentions reached their highest level in the survey, even as residential activity intentions kept improving. That points to higher quotes for people planning to build or renovate.

ANZ's next Business Outlook is due on 29 October, the day after the OCR decision.