Fuel bill nearly doubles, pushing September trade deficit to $2b

New Zealand had a goods trade deficit of NZ$1.971 billion in September. That was more than twice the NZ$775 million gap the market expected, ActionForex reported. Stats NZ rounds the figure to NZ$2.0b.

The deficit was up from a revised NZ$1.536b in August and from NZ$1.41b in September 2025, Stats NZ figures show.

Fuel was the biggest cause. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products were worth NZ$1.2b in September, up NZ$608m, or 96%, on a year earlier. Stats NZ said the rise was "predominately driven by higher prices", though its trade figures do not measure prices directly.

Total imports rose NZ$1.3b (18%) on September 2025, to NZ$8.4b. ActionForex calculates that petroleum made up about 47% of that increase. Electrical machinery imports rose NZ$181m and mechanical machinery NZ$94m, it reported.

Exports also grew on a year earlier, up NZ$707m (12%) to NZ$6.5b. Compared with August, though, they barely moved: NZ$6.47b against NZ$6.48b. Over the same month, imports climbed from NZ$8.02b to NZ$8.44b.

Prices worked the other way for dairy. Exports of milk powder, butter and cheese rose 9.6% to NZ$1.47b, according to Stats NZ. Farmers shipped more and were paid less for each tonne. Milk powder volumes rose 22% while the unit price fell 7.6%. Milk fats, including butter, rose 18% in quantity, but the unit price dropped 14%, which left their value up just 1.2% at NZ$327m. Cheese volumes rose 16% and the price fell 3.4%.

Other exports were stronger. Over the year to September, meat and edible offal exports reached NZ$12.2b, up NZ$2.3b or 23%, Stats NZ said. Trading Economics recorded aluminium exports up 53% in September.

Exports to China rose NZ$185m (14%). Fruit led the rise, up NZ$73m, followed by meat and then seafood. Exports to Australia rose NZ$79m (8.4%), even though crude oil, the biggest faller, dropped NZ$68m. Exports to the US were up NZ$54m (8.7%).

On the import side, goods from China were up 26.1% and from South Korea up 23.6%. Imports from the US fell 8.3%.

For the year to September, the deficit widened to NZ$6.2b from NZ$2.4b. Annual imports rose NZ$11.1b, while exports rose NZ$7.4b. As recently as April 2026, New Zealand posted its largest monthly surplus on record, NZ$1.53b, according to Trading Economics.

Once seasonal swings are stripped out, trade grew more slowly over the quarter. Stats NZ's seasonally adjusted figures show imports rose 2.1% and exports 1.2% in the September quarter, down from 7.6% and 7.0% in the June quarter. That left a quarterly deficit of NZ$2.0b.

The Reserve Bank's next rate decision is on 28 October, and the official cash rate is 2.75%. investingLive said the jump in fuel imports would push up prices from abroad that the Reserve Bank can't ignore. It said the wider trade gap could weigh slightly on the New Zealand dollar. A weaker dollar makes imported goods, fuel included, more expensive.

Fuel costs are also weighing on service firms. The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index was 50.9 in September, investingLive reported. That was a fourth month of modest growth, but the employment measure was just below 50. Firms named fuel prices as one of their main worries, along with the cost of living, interest rates and the 7 November general election.