Government's 8700 job-cut plan relies on AI, but its papers don't say how many jobs AI can replace

The Government's plan to cut 8700 public sector jobs depends on a "much more aggressive/targeted approach to AI", according to Official Information Act papers RNZ reported on 1 October.

iStart's AppWrap news digest, summarising RNZ's report, quotes Public Service Commissioner Brian Roche saying the cuts will need a shift from jobs to technology. The aim, he said, is a slimmer, more digital public service that works better.

The papers do not model how many jobs AI might remove. They also don't say which services it might improve, RNZ noted.

The report comes five weeks before the 7 November election. Labour had already gone after this part of the plan. On 9 September, Labour leader Chris Hipkins told 1News: "They said we're going to sack 9000 people, and then we're going to fill the void with AI. They don't know how they're going to do that. They don't know how much it's going to cost." Hipkins used 9000; the papers RNZ reported put the figure at 8700.

He also took aim at automated decisions. "This Government have changed the law to allow more algorithmic decision-making in government agencies. There's a risk with that," he said, according to 1News. Labour pointed to the Ministry of Social Development, which now has more freedom to automate some decisions. MSD has said its new systems won't be built on generative AI models such as ChatGPT. It says it automates only rules-based decisions where no discretion is needed.

Labour's alternative is an Office of AI inside the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Hipkins wants it running "certainly within the first few months" if Labour wins. The party says human beings must stay accountable for automated decisions. It accuses National of a "light-touch approach" that "relies too much on existing law and decisions made by overseas technology companies", 1News reported.

The policy also promises to "take steps to understand the full lifetime cost of adopting AI across the public service", RNZ and the New Zealand Herald reported. So Labour is promising to work out the very cost it says the Government doesn't know.

It hasn't put a number on its own plan either. Labour technology spokesperson Reuben Davidson couldn't cost the policy and called it an action plan, RNZ reported. He also wouldn't guarantee that no public servant would lose their job to AI. "I'm not sure that that anyone can make that commitment, but I know that there will be new jobs created," he told RNZ.

The Government's public response has focused on safety rather than numbers. "The Ministry for Regulation has issued guidance to every government department on how to take advantage of AI in a safe way," ACT leader and Regulation Minister David Seymour told RNZ.

The plan to move work from people to software comes after several government technology projects went badly, according to reports collected in iStart's AppWrap digest.

Immigration New Zealand's $336m Our Future Services project was supposed to save $453m. RNZ reported that "significantly flawed assumptions" led the agency to overestimate the benefits by $134m. The project is now paused. With benefits of about $319m, it would cost more than it saves.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment told a select committee that its Biometric Capability Upgrade had cost $50.7m. RNZ reported that the project has been abandoned and $42m has already been written off.

Secure messaging in the govt.nz app was due to go live in July. BusinessDesk reported that the $2.2m project had barely started by then and is still being built.

Inside MBIE, a review of 70 active technology projects found that 31 were big enough to need formal oversight. Projects rated amber or red now have action plans.